There is a delightful kerfuffle about secret US intelligence documents being leaked that has got the attention of all the tabloids, and it seems even some “serious” papers. So let me tell you this about any information that comes to you in the form of an “intelligence leak” or “secret document”: you can’t trust it. You don’t know where it came from. It could just as easily be made up as real, and you don’t have any way of telling. Spy agencies love to play this game where they use the press to circulate a bunch of material, some of it with true information and some of it with that other kind. It’s a way for governments to mess with one another, and it also keeps citizens confused.
So what to make of the report that Serbia, while declining to join sanctions regimes and doing a lot of public pro-Putin posturing, has “provided or committed to provide lethal aid” to Ukraine? Well, Serbia’s defence minister denies it, and so does the foreign minister. The US denies it and the Ukrainian embassy in Serbia says it has no knowledge. All of those denials could only lead a person to believe that it is true.
Another thing that might motivate a person to think that it is true is its consistency with other facts. Does Vučić like to neutralise opposition by occupying every position on every issue? Oh indeed he does, he is pro-democracy and anti-democracy, pro-war and pro-peace, pro-LGBT and anti-LGBT, naturally he is going to be both pro-Russian and anti-Russian. What makes it work is that he points different faces toward different audiences, which is excellent strategy as long as you can control what people know. And does Serbia like to expand its influence by promoting international sales of weapons? This is in fact its most desirable product. So there is enough there that makes sense to people observing the politics that you might be inclined to believe that it is true.
This still doesn’t mean you should jump in excitement at anyone he claims to have “secrets.” Usually they don’t have them. But when the gossip fits the mise en scene, you get more confidence in where the document’s been.